What Are Schedule Forecasts?

Schedule Forecasts are estimates or predictions of project completion dates based on current schedule performance data. In PMBOK 8, schedule forecasts are updated continuously as the project progresses, using earned value metrics (SPI, SV) to project the likely finish date. The two primary forecast approaches are time-extended EAC (Estimate at Completion for time, using SPI) and critical path extension analysis (adding remaining critical path duration to the current date). Schedule Forecasts are distinct from the Schedule Baseline (which is frozen) — they represent the team's best current estimate of when the project will actually finish, given how it is performing today.

What's Inside This Schedule Forecasts Example

This Schedule Forecasts example covers Project Phoenix — MCG's $72,250 website launch, March 17 to June 13, 2025. The spreadsheet contains:

• Weekly Forecast tab: 13 weeks of schedule forecast data — planned finish date, SPI-based forecast finish, critical path-based forecast finish, and current forecast variance (days ahead or behind baseline)
• SPI Trend Chart: Visual SPI chart from Week 1 through Week 13, with the 1.0 baseline reference line and the Week 5–6 dip to 0.97 clearly visible
• Milestone Forecast tab: Forecast completion dates for each of the 12 milestones, compared to baseline, updated weekly
• What-If Analysis tab: Three scenarios — optimistic (all remaining activities complete at current SPI), base case (SPI returns to 1.0), pessimistic (SPI drops to 0.93) — with corresponding finish date projections

How Alex Morgan Used These Schedule Forecasts

Alex updated schedule forecasts every Friday alongside cost forecasts. The two most important forecast moments were:

• Week 6 forecast: SPI 0.97, baseline finish June 13, forecast finish June 16. A 3-day slip. Alex presented this to Riley Park with the CR-002 proposal (content scope reduction) as the corrective action. By Week 7, the forecast was back to June 12 — two days before the deadline. The forecasts made the problem and the solution visible in the same conversation.
• Week 10 forecast: SPI 1.04, forecast finish June 9 — four days before the June 13 baseline deadline. Alex shared this with the team as a positive signal but cautioned against complacency. The team used the schedule buffer to invest in extra QA testing coverage in Weeks 11–12, improving the post-launch defect rate.

The What-If Analysis was used proactively in Week 8, when ISS-005 (payment gateway API change) was resolved. Alex ran the pessimistic scenario to confirm that even if the API integration took twice as long as estimated, the project would still finish by June 13. That analysis gave the team confidence to handle the integration carefully (prioritizing quality over speed) rather than rushing and introducing technical debt.

Download and Customize

This Schedule Forecasts example is available as a free download. Use it as a reference to build your own schedule forecasting model, or start with the blank template and apply SPI-based projections to your project's earned value data.

• Download the Schedule Forecasts Template — PMBOK 8 (blank, ready to use)
• Read the article: Schedule Forecasts in PMBOK 8 — Guide and Best Practices

Schedule Forecasts Example: Key Takeaways

The Week 10 schedule forecast — showing a June 9 projected finish against a June 13 baseline — was not just good news; it was a decision input. Alex used the four-day buffer to invest in additional QA coverage rather than declaring early victory and reducing team intensity. That is the highest-value use of a positive schedule forecast: not celebration, but deliberate reallocation of freed capacity to quality activities that reduce post-launch risk. Schedule forecasts don't just tell you when you'll finish — they tell you what you can afford to do with time you've earned.

Want to go deeper? The PMBOK Guide 8th Edition is the definitive reference for modern project management. Get your copy and use it alongside these examples to build a solid, practical understanding of every performance domain.